Silver Just Had Its Best Month In 40 Years: Here Are July’s Best And Worst Performing Assets

by Tyler DurdenMon, 08/03/2020 – 13:22

When looking at the torrid market performance in July, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that silver (+35%) had its best month since December 1979 while the dollar the worst for a decade. US equities had a good month in spite of rising virus caseloads due to a strong earnings season relative to expectations, especially in tech towards the end of the month. YTD Silver, Gold and the NASDAQ have been the three best performers while at the bottom of the leaderboard Brent, WTI and European Banks are all down at least 30%.

Below we present some of the key highlights from Deutsche Bank’s July 2020 performance review

While July proved to be another decent month for risk assets, it was the performance of two other assets in particular which caught the eye. The first was Silver, which had its strongest month since December 1979. The second was the weakness in the USD, which ended with the USD spot index dropping by the most in a single month since September 2010.

Indeed the impact of the latter was fully felt when looking at returns in USD terms, with 36 of the 38 assets in DB’s sample finishing with a positive total return. In local currency terms, that number dropped to a still-impressive 30 assets. As markets move into August, typically a more subdued month for volumes but perceived to be a weaker month for risk, the focus remains on the reopening of economies on the one hand and signs of rising cases in certain countries on the other.

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Silver down over 3% on the day as buyers show further signs of exhaustion for now

Silver falls to $23.50 and back under its 100-hour moving average

Silver 30-07

The moves in silver and gold remain a major theme in the market this week and we are seeing further signs of a pullback with silver down by over 3% on the session now.
More notably, price action is starting to break its 100-hour MA (red line) after having twice moved below that but only to hold at that level in the end this week.
If anything, this points to further signs of exhaustion on the part of buyers – for now.
Gold is also down by nearly 1% to $1,951.75 currently as the dollar is keeping firmer.
In the case of silver, there is some support from the overnight low @ $23.34 next but the 28 July low @ $22.31 will be one to watch moving forward if sellers are to try and push for a sharper pullback after the parabolic rise over the past two weeks.

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Precious Metal ETFs Shines in July

Amid rising U.S.-China tensions and worsening COVID-19 crisis, precious metals have become attractive and more appealing to investors. Gold has skyrocketed to an all-time high nearing $2,000 per ounce while silver has jumped to the highest level of nearly $25 in seven years.

The weakness in the U.S. dollar against major global currencies also raised the metal’s attractiveness, as it does not pay interest like fixed-income assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is poised for its worst July in decades, having lost 3.9% so far this month. The index is trading at the lowest since 2018. Additionally, massive liquidity injections by central banks across the globe and hopes of further stimulus supported the price of metals.

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Silver to surge above $35 after taking a breather – Credit Suisse

Silver has established its looked for base and has already moved to the first resistance at $26.09/22. Whilst strategists at Credit Suisse look for a pause here, they see scope for further gains ahead, ideally to $35.23/365. 

Key quotes

“Silver has seen an even more dramatic move higher than Gold over the past few weeks, confirming the flagged multi-year base above $19.65, and strength has already extended to our flagged resistance at $26.09/22 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2020 bear market and key lows from 2011 and 2012.”

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