Tag: Economic Indicators

Gold on Track for Best Week in Seven

Sirhc

RPMEX: January 10, 2025

Gold prices are on course for their strongest week in seven, hitting a four-week high on Friday. This uptick is driven by growing safe-haven demand amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the policies of the incoming administration.

Recent economic data has revealed significant job growth in December, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 256,000, far exceeding expectations. This surge in jobs is a critical indicator for Federal Reserve policymakers, as they assess the need for future monetary policy adjustments. The minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting raised concerns that the new administration’s policies could contribute to inflationary pressures, adding to the complexity of future policy decisions.

Despite the positive jobs report, the ADP Employment Report showed that private sector job additions were weaker than expected in December, with only 122,000 new positions, below the forecasted 136,000. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims dropped to an 11-month low, signaling continued strength in the labor market.

Gold futures for February gained 0.7% on Thursday, closing at $2,690.80 an ounce, and have increased by 1.4% for the week. After a strong 2024, with a 27% rise—the largest annual gain since 2010—gold remains a sought-after asset. The current February contract is trading at $2,722.30 an ounce, while the spot price sits at $2,695.20. Gold’s performance in 2024 was fueled by monetary policies, economic conditions, and central bank activity globally.

The Federal Reserve has reduced its benchmark interest rates three times since September, most recently bringing them to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Higher interest rates typically place downward pressure on gold, as they increase the appeal of other interest-bearing investments. Currently, market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain rates at the end of this month, with the majority of investors anticipating no changes.

Silver futures also showed strength, rising 1.1% on Thursday to $31.02 an ounce. The March contract has gained 3.2% in the first part of the week. Despite a decline in December, silver ended 2024 up 21%. The March contract is now priced at $31.35 an ounce, and the spot price is $30.52.

Palladium and platinum prices saw modest gains on Thursday. Palladium rose by 0.1% to $942.50 an ounce, while platinum increased by 0.4% to $967.10. These metals have faced challenges in recent months, with palladium down 17% in 2024 and platinum sliding by 8.4%.

Disclaimer: This editorial content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to engage in any specific financial transactions. The views expressed herein may not reflect the position of of RPMEX and or it’s affiliates. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change unpredictably.

SECRETARY STATEMENTS & REMARKS

Sirhc

Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at the Open Session of the meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council

Editorial: The Financial Stability Oversight Council was Established in 2010 under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the Financial Stability Oversight Council provides comprehensive monitoring of the stability of our nation’s financial system.

This council is charged by statute with identifying risks to the financial stability of the United States; promoting market discipline; and responding to emerging threats to the stability of the U.S. financial system.

This council may be monitoring and identifying but they aren’t doing anything to reduce excessive government spending which has resulted in a $2.5T annual U.S. budget deficit, a 40 year high inflation rate, and a U.S. National Debt approaching $34T? This is just more of the same nonsensical approach of creating more layers of bureaucracy expense and resolving nothing.

November 3, 2023

As Prepared for Delivery

Our first agenda item is to discuss and vote on the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risk identification, assessment, and response, and on the Council’s interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations. Before we turn to the presentation, I’d like to explain why I believe it is so important for the Council to achieve greater public transparency and analytic rigor and how these two documents will help the Council do so. 

Financial stability is a public good. The U.S. financial system enables people to make payments, build businesses, save, and manage risks. To fill our needs, it has evolved to be complex, diverse, and interconnected. We rely on it every day, and it has succeeded in supporting American families and businesses, enabling wealth creation and economic growth over generations. But, when it falters, we can experience financial crises that can devastate households and businesses for years afterwards.  

This is where the Council, or FSOC, comes in. Congress created FSOC after the global financial crisis to identify and respond to risks to financial stability. To maintain the strength of the financial sector, we need a nimble but robust structure to monitor and address the build-up of risks that could threaten the system. In the lead-up to the global financial crisis, inadequate oversight led to reckless risk-taking. When large, interconnected financial companies failed in 2007 and 2008, stress spread through the financial system and then to the real economy. The reforms implemented after that crisis substantially strengthened the financial system. And the banking system as a whole remains strong. But recent stresses in some financial sectors arising from the onset of the pandemic and the sudden failures of some regional banks underscore the continuing need to remain vigilant to threats to ensure the resilience of the financial system and our economic strength.  

This is the purpose of the Council, and our two votes today go to the heart of FSOC fulfilling its critical mission. 

Our first vote will be on approving the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risks. This framework will help the public better understand how the Council goes about its work and how it draws on its various statutory tools to respond to risks. For the first time, it provides a clear explanation of how the Council monitors, evaluates, and responds to potential risks to financial stability, regardless of whether they come from activities, individual firms, or other sources. Under the framework, the Council’s response to a particular risk to financial stability will depend on the nature of the risk. Often, risks emanate from widely conducted activities and can be effectively addressed through action by an existing regulator or interagency coordination. Other times, risks are instead concentrated in one or more specific nonbank financial companies. 

This brings me to the Council’s guidance on nonbank financial company designations. Among the tools Congress gave the Council is the authority to designate a nonbank financial company for Federal Reserve supervision and prudential standards if the company’s distress or activities could pose a threat to financial stability. The guidance we are voting on today will help ensure that the Council is able to use this authority as needed. It describes in detail the procedural steps for the Council’s review of nonbank financial companies for potential designation. These involve rigorous analysis and transparency. The guidance maintains strong procedural protections for companies under review, including significant Council engagement and communication, and provides them with opportunities to be heard. The guidance also affirms that the Council will engage extensively with companies’ primary financial regulators. The guidance also eliminates several prerequisites to designation in place under the current guidance that were not contemplated by the Dodd-Frank Act and that are based on a flawed view of how financial risks develop and spread. And, again, designation is only one of the Council’s tools and is not being prioritized over other approaches to addressing financial stability risks. 

In voting to adopt the analytic framework and guidance, we will increase the transparency of the Council’s work and establish a durable process for the Council’s use of its designation authority, strengthening the Council’s ability to promote a resilient financial system that supports all Americans.  

With that, let me turn to Sandra Lee, Treasury’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Council, for the presentation.

Surge in China’s Demand for Gold Is Slowing as Economy Stumbles

Sirhc

The jitters affecting the world’s second-biggest economy are starting to feed through into China’s gold market.

Source: Bloomberg: Published Jun 19, 2023  •  2 minute read

(Bloomberg) — The jitters affecting the world’s second-biggest economy are starting to feed through into China’s gold market.

Article content

A surge in purchases by Chinese residents, driven by pent-up demand after three years of pandemic restrictions and optimism that the economy would quickly rebound, is starting to slow — yet another sign that the recovery is losing momentum.

China vies with India as the world’s biggest consumer of gold bars, coins and jewelry. Its central bank has also been a recent buyer, adding to its reserves for seven straight months after a three-year pause. Although most gold trades as a financial asset — notably as a haven for investors during risky times or as a hedge against inflation — China’s physical demand for the precious metal has helped underpin its ascent this year to over $2,000 an ounce.

The rapid expansion in retail sales of gold and silver jewelry looks to have topped out, rising 24% year-on-year in May to 26.6 billion yuan ($3.7 billion). That’s slower than the 44% and 37% growth recorded in the previous two months. The same period last year included the extended lockdown of Shanghai, when demand for goods and services cratered across the economy.