US REAL YIELDS A KEY DRIVER FOR GOLD
Yesterday saw the precious metals complex come under significant selling pressure with the gold price dropping 5.7%, the largest fall since April 2013, while silver crashed 14.95%, marking its biggest plunge since October 2008. While arguably precious metals were in need of a correction given their sizeable rise, the fall coincided with a surge higher in bond yields, in particular US real yields, which have been the largest driver behind the move in the precious metals complex.
TOP IN US REAL YIELD MARKS SHORT-TERM TOP IN GOLD
WHY THE SURGE IN BOND YIELDS?
Among the key catalysts behind the push higher in US yields was the anticipation of a large supply of US Treasuries. Last week’s quarterly refunding announcement saw a record USD 112bln in borrowing for this week’s auctions. This is USD 16bln larger than the package announced last quarter and also marked an interim bottom in US 10yr yields (now 17bps higher since the record low). Alongside this, the surge in corporate issuance is another contributing factor behind the push higher in US bond yields as well as better than expected US data, most notably Friday’s US NFP report that signaled that the recovery remains intact.