The BIS Issues A Dire Warning: “We Are Moving From The Liquidity To The Solvency Phase Of The Crisis”

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by Tyler Durden

Tue, 12/08/2020 – 05:45

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and the BIS – the central banks’ central bank – warning about excesses from monetary policy (the most recent amusing example of this was last October when as we wrote, “Fed Announces QE4 One Day After BIS Warns QE Has Broken The Market”). Actually, to this list of 3 certainties we can add one more: central banks roundly ignoring the warnings from the central bank mothership.

That, however, does not prevent the BIS from continuing this trend of warnings, and today the Basel-based organization did just that when in its Quarterly Review publication it cautioned that the surge in financial markets following COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs and the U.S. election has left asset prices increasingly stretched.

Sounding surprisingly similar to Goldman, which as we reported earlier today issued an almost identical warning, when it observed that its sentiment indicator is now +2.0 standard deviations above average…

… which has left positioning extremely stretched and represents a 98th percentile reading since 2009…

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Gold Rebounds Toward $2,000 After Dollar Drops to Two-Year Low

A worker plunges a gold ingot into a cooling bath at the Uralelectromed Copper Refinery, operated by Ural Mining and Metallurgical Co. (UMMC), in Verkhnyaya Pyshma, Russia, on Thursday, July 30, 2020. Gold surged to a fresh record Friday fueled by a weaker dollar and low interest rates. Silver headed for its best month since 1979. , Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Gold is rebounding, with Comex futures climbing back to $2,000 an ounce as the dollar weakened and investors bet U.S. interest rates would stay lower for longer.

The dollar dropped to the lowest in over two years, fueling a broad advance in commodities. Spot gold gained more than 3% over the past three sessions, following its first monthly loss since March, as the Federal Reserve’s new approach on inflation added support. That came after a slowdown in buying from gold-backed exchange-traded funds raised concern that a key driver of the metal’s record rally may be losing momentum.

“Now that month end is out of the way, the underlying trends can resume, one of which is a lower U.S. dollar,” said Shyam Devani, chief strategist at SAV Markets in Singapore. “Broadly, the massive increase in global money supply keeps gold in an uptrend.”

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